Statistics Canada reported on November 4, 2026 that Canada's merchandise exports edged up 0.2% in September to $78.6 billion, while imports fell 0.3% to $73.2 billion. The merchandise trade surplus widened from $5.0 billion in August to $5.4 billion. The figures are seasonally adjusted, in current dollars, on a balance-of-payments basis.
- Exports: $78.6 billion, up 0.2% from August; down 4.0% in volume terms
- Imports: $73.2 billion, down 0.3%; down 2.5% in volume terms
- Merchandise trade surplus: $5.4 billion, up from $5.0 billion
- Exports excluding energy and metals: down 5.6%
- Third quarter: exports and imports both up 0.2%; surplus about $11.2 billion
What drove the September numbers
The small gain in exports rested on two product groups. Energy exports rose 8.2%, with crude oil and bitumen up 10.2% on higher prices, and metal and mineral exports rose 8.6%, led by unwrought gold. Outside those two groups, exports fell 5.6%, and 8 of 11 product sections declined. Statistics Canada noted that several of the weaker categories, including consumer goods, electronic equipment, machinery, motor vehicles and parts, and forestry and building products, had been targeted by new U.S. tariffs and had jumped in August.
Exports to the United States rose 0.7% and the surplus with the U.S. widened to $12.3 billion. Exports to other countries fell 1.1%, lowering their share of the total to 29.8%. On the import side, motor vehicles and parts dropped 9.1% after a 9.3% decline in August.
Price effects matter here: in real (volume) terms, exports fell 4.0% in September and 0.6% in the third quarter, so higher oil and gold prices flattered the dollar figures.
Why it matters for borrowers
Our interpretation: Trade data feed into the Bank of Canada's view of growth. On November 3, Governor Tiff Macklem told a Commons committee that exports had rebounded but growth was expected to slow in the fourth quarter as new U.S. tariffs weigh on activity, and that a further rate increase could be needed because of energy-driven inflation. September's report fits both parts of that picture: higher oil prices are lifting export values, while tariff-exposed goods are weakening.
- Households with variable-rate mortgages or HELOCs are most directly exposed to the Bank's next decisions; its next announcement is December 9, 2026, and it is covered in the October rate decision is summarized here.
- Workers and business owners in tariff-exposed sectors, such as autos, forestry and machinery, may want to factor income uncertainty into plans for a purchase or refinance.
What to check next
Before committing to a larger payment, test it against a higher rate with the stress test calculator. Self-employed borrowers whose income depends on exports can review how lenders assess variable income with the self-employed mortgage calculator, and a mortgage broker can compare lender options.
Sources
- Statistics Canada, Canadian international merchandise trade, September 2026, 2026-11-04. Accessed 2026-11-05.
- Bank of Canada, Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, 2026-11-03. Accessed 2026-11-05.
This news summary is general information, not financial advice. Statistics Canada data may be revised. Speak with a licensed mortgage professional about your own situation.
