Statistics Canada reported on October 23, 2026, that retail sales rose 1.2% to $74.6 billion in August, with sales up in all nine retail subsectors, according to its Retail trade release. The figures are seasonally adjusted and arrive days before the Bank of Canada's next rate decision.
- Total retail sales: up 1.2% from July to $74.6 billion in August 2026 (seasonally adjusted). In volume terms, sales also rose 1.2%.
- Core retail sales, which leave out gas stations, fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers, rose 1.1% after a 0.7% decline in July.
- Sales rose in six provinces, led by Ontario (+2.2%) and British Columbia (+2.1%). Alberta (−0.1%) posted the largest provincial decline.
- Statistics Canada's early estimate points to a further 0.7% gain in September. That figure is preliminary and will be revised.
What the August numbers show
Motor vehicle and parts dealers posted the largest increase (+1.2%), led by new car dealers. Sales at gas stations and fuel vendors rose 1.7% in dollars but fell 0.5% in volume, which suggests higher pump prices rather than more fuel bought. Food and beverage retailers rose 1.1%, their first gain in three months, and health and personal care retailers were up for a tenth straight month.
Regionally, retail sales in the Toronto census metropolitan area rose 4.0% and Vancouver rose 2.1%. Manitoba (+1.6%), Saskatchewan (+1.1%), Nova Scotia (+0.6%) and Quebec (+0.2%) also gained, while Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick each fell 0.6%.
What it means for mortgage holders
Our interpretation: a broad rebound in spending, coming after September inflation rose to 3.1%, is one more data point the Bank of Canada will weigh. The Bank's schedule lists its next interest rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report for October 28, 2026, and its policy rate page shows the target for the overnight rate at 2.25%. One month of retail data does not decide a rate move, and no outcome is certain.
Variable-rate borrowers and anyone with a HELOC feel a change in the policy rate most directly, through their lender's prime rate. Fixed-rate borrowers are more affected by bond yields, which move on expectations before and after each announcement. Households renewing in the next few months are the most exposed to whichever way rates go.
What to check next
- If you renew within six months, ask your lender when you can lock in a renewal rate and compare it with other offers using the mortgage renewal calculator.
- If you are deciding between fixed and variable, test a few rate paths with the fixed vs variable calculator rather than relying on a single forecast.
- A licensed mortgage broker can compare renewal and switch options across several lenders.
Statistics Canada will publish the official September retail figures in its next monthly release.
Sources
- Statistics Canada, Retail trade, August 2026, 2026-10-23. Accessed 2026-10-26.
- Bank of Canada, Upcoming events, 2026-10-26. Accessed 2026-10-26.
- Bank of Canada, Policy interest rate, 2026-10-26. Accessed 2026-10-26.
General information only, not financial advice. Figures are as published by Statistics Canada on October 23, 2026; the Bank of Canada rate is as shown on its website on October 26, 2026.
