Canada's annual inflation rate edged up in September. In the Consumer Price Index release published on Monday, October 19, 2026, Statistics Canada reported that the CPI rose 3.1% year over year in September, following a 3.0% increase in August. Higher prices for gasoline and fuel oil did most of the work.
- All-items CPI: +3.1% year over year in September (August: +3.0%).
- Month over month: +0.1% (not seasonally adjusted); +0.4% seasonally adjusted.
- CPI excluding gasoline: +2.2% (August: +2.4%).
- Energy: +19.0%; gasoline +27.8%; fuel oil and other fuels +57.8%.
- Shelter: +1.8%; rent +2.8%; mortgage interest cost index −0.2%.
What drove September's number
Statistics Canada said crude oil prices reached their highest level since May amid ongoing uncertainty about the wars in the Middle East, pushing gasoline up 27.8% from a year earlier, compared with 22.8% in August. The switch to cheaper winter-blend gasoline moderated the increase. Fuel oil and other fuels rose 57.8%, which the agency noted had a greater impact in Atlantic Canada, where fuel oil is more widely used.
Outside energy, price growth was softer. Prices for food purchased from stores rose 1.7% after 2.8% in August, and the CPI excluding gasoline slowed to 2.2%.
What it means for homeowners and renters
Shelter costs rose 1.8% year over year, up from 1.5%. Besides fuel oil, Statistics Canada pointed to faster growth in homeowners' home and mortgage insurance (+4.9%) and maintenance and repairs (+1.2%). The mortgage interest cost index fell 0.2%, the same pace as in August, and rent rose 2.8%, matching August. Rent grew fastest in Atlantic Canada, where, excluding energy, inflation was also above the national 2.1% in all four provinces: Nova Scotia (3.3%), Prince Edward Island (2.6%), New Brunswick (2.6%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (2.4%).
Our interpretation: the gap between headline inflation (3.1%) and inflation excluding gasoline (2.2%) shows how much of September's increase came from fuel. How the Bank of Canada weighs that will be clearer on October 28, 2026, its next scheduled interest rate announcement; the policy rate target currently stands at 2.25%. This release does not tell borrowers which way rates will move.
What to check next
- If you heat with fuel oil, budget for higher winter costs; lenders count heating costs in debt-service ratios.
- If your variable-rate mortgage or HELOC resets with prime, review your payment with the mortgage payment calculator before October 28.
- If you are renewing soon, compare offers with the renewal calculator, or talk to a mortgage broker about your options.
The October CPI is scheduled for release on Monday, November 16, 2026.
Sources
- Statistics Canada, The Daily: Consumer Price Index, September 2026, 2026-10-19. Accessed 2026-10-21.
- Bank of Canada, Policy interest rate. Accessed 2026-10-21.
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