Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said on October 27, 2026, that mortgage arrears in Ontario are expected to keep rising through mid-2027, in a release accompanying its fall 2026 Residential Mortgage Industry Report. A mortgage is counted as in arrears when payments are 90 or more days past due. CMHC also said mortgage stress is not widespread across the country.
- Ontario's mortgage arrears rate was about 0.32% in the second quarter of 2026, up from about 0.21% a year earlier, according to the report's provincial chart (Canadian Bankers Association data with CMHC calculations).
- Over the same period, British Columbia rose to about 0.26% from 0.20%, Alberta was roughly flat near 0.27%, and Quebec was near 0.19%.
- Among large urban areas, Toronto's delinquency rate rose to 0.33% from 0.24%, London to 0.27% from 0.18%, and Vancouver to 0.24% from 0.17% (Q2 2025 to Q2 2026). Regina and Edmonton improved.
- National delinquency rates on auto loans (2.51%), credit cards (1.91%) and lines of credit (1.05%) were all higher in Q2 2026 than a year earlier.
Why Ontario stands out
CMHC links the pressure in Ontario to trade tensions affecting manufacturing, including the auto sector, along with labour-market uncertainty and softer housing conditions. The increase is concentrated in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area and Southwestern Ontario. The report says Ontario's rate is approaching levels last seen around 2008, while still below historical peaks. CMHC expects a more moderate rise in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, and stable arrears in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
The report also finds the highest delinquency among mortgage investment entities (MIEs), the private lenders that serve borrowers outside bank criteria, at about 2.57% in Q2 2026 compared with 0.28% at chartered banks. MIEs held 1.8% of outstanding mortgage balances in the first quarter of 2026, which CMHC says limits the wider risk. On the positive side, CMHC says the largest renewal shock has likely passed and new lending carries a lower risk profile.
What it means for borrowers
Our interpretation: rising arrears are a regional warning sign, not a national crisis. CMHC's point that missed payments on cards, car loans and credit lines tend to show up before mortgage arrears matters for households: a growing balance on other debt is often the earliest sign that a mortgage payment is becoming hard to carry. Lenders generally have more options before a mortgage falls 90 days behind than after.
What to check next
- If payments are getting tight, contact your lender early and ask about options such as changing the payment schedule or extending the amortization. Terms vary by lender.
- If you renew soon, compare offers with the mortgage renewal calculator, and test whether rolling high-interest debt into your mortgage would help with the debt consolidation calculator.
- If you hold or are considering a private mortgage, understand the term, fees and exit plan, and check the broker's or lender's licence with your provincial regulator.
- A licensed mortgage broker can compare renewal, refinance and switch options across lenders.
Sources
- CMHC, Ontario mortgage arrears expected to rise through mid-2027: CMHC, 2026-10-27. Accessed 2026-10-28.
- CMHC, Residential Mortgage Industry Report, fall 2026, 2026-10-27. Accessed 2026-10-28.
General information only, not financial advice. Figures are as published by CMHC on October 27, 2026, and are rounded; rates refer to mortgages 90 or more days past due.
