On November 10, 2026, the Bank of Canada published the summary of Governing Council deliberations behind its October 28 decision to raise the policy rate by a quarter point to 2.5%. The summary shows that members weighed holding at 2.25% against a hike, chose the hike to stop high energy prices from spreading into broader inflation, and agreed that the rate could need to rise further.
- Decision on October 28, 2026: policy rate raised from 2.25% to 2.5%. The only other option weighed was a hold at 2.25%.
- Benchmark oil price: about US$35 per barrel higher than assumed in July.
- CPI inflation expected to reach about 3½% at the end of 2026, stay above 3% through much of 2027 and return to 2% by the middle of 2028 (Bank forecast, not actual data).
- CPI excluding gasoline: 2.2%. Core inflation measures: close to 2%.
- Unemployment rate: around 6½%. Second-quarter GDP growth: 3.3%, with the third quarter tracking about 2%.
What the summary says
The case for holding was that higher inflation had so far been concentrated in energy and energy-heavy services such as airfares, core measures were still near 2% and some slack remained in the economy. The case for raising was that fuel prices were far above July assumptions and expected to stay high, businesses expected to pass on more of their costs, and growth had been stronger than expected. The summary says Governing Council decided to raise the rate to reduce the risk that persistently high energy prices would lead to broader and lasting inflation.
On what comes next, members agreed there could be a need to raise the policy rate further, but said they would decide one meeting at a time. They also noted that uncertainty did not mean inaction. The forecasts behind the decision are set out in the Bank's October 2026 Monetary Policy Report.
Housing in the outlook
The summary expects residential investment to stay relatively weak because of slow population growth, affordability constraints, higher mortgage interest rates and elevated uncertainty. Household consumption, by contrast, was described as solid.
Who is affected
- Variable-rate borrowers and HELOC holders: prime-linked rates move with the policy rate, so any further increase would raise costs. The October hike is covered in our report on the decision.
- Homeowners renewing in the next year: the summary gives no date or size for any future move, so renewal plans should allow for more than one rate scenario.
- Buyers: qualifying rates and pre-approvals depend on lender pricing, which can shift as markets reassess the outlook.
Our interpretation: the summary adds detail to the Governor's recent remarks rather than a new signal. The key point for borrowers is that the Bank framed further increases as possible, not certain, and tied them to whether energy costs spread into other prices.
What to do next
Check whether your mortgage is fixed, variable with fixed payments, or adjustable, and what your trigger point is if payments are fixed. Run your renewal numbers at a few different rates with the mortgage renewal calculator, and compare options with the fixed vs variable calculator. A mortgage renewal broker can compare lender offers before your term ends.
Sources
- Bank of Canada, Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of October 28, 2026, 2026-11-10. Accessed 2026-11-11.
- Bank of Canada, Monetary Policy Report, October 2026, 2026-10-28. Accessed 2026-11-11.
This news summary is general information, not financial advice. Forecasts can change. Speak with a licensed mortgage professional about your situation.
