The Bank of Canada published its Market Participants Survey for the third quarter of 2026 on November 9, 2026. About 25 financial market participants answered the survey between September 23 and October 1, 2026, roughly four weeks before the Bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% on October 28. The results show where professional forecasters expected rates, bond yields and inflation to go as of early October.
- Median policy rate forecast: 2.50% for December 2026, 2.75% by March 2027, and 2.75% through the end of 2028.
- Median estimate of the long-term nominal neutral rate: 2.75%.
- 52% of respondents saw the risks to their rate forecast as skewed to a higher path; none saw them skewed lower.
- Median 5-year Canadian bond yield forecast: 3.50% at the end of 2026 and 3.45% at the end of 2027.
- Median CPI inflation forecast: 3.0% at the end of 2026 and 2.0% at the end of 2027.
A survey taken before the October hike
The median respondent expected the Bank to hold at 2.25% in October and reach 2.50% by December. The Bank moved earlier than that, so the policy rate now sits at the level respondents expected for year-end. The median path then had one more 25-basis-point increase, to 2.75%, by March 2027, and no change after that through 2028. Respondents also put the median probability of a recession at 13% in the next six months and 20% in the six to 12 months after that.
Our interpretation: because the October decision came after the survey closed, these numbers are best read as a snapshot of expectations, not a forecast updated for the latest move. The tilt toward higher-rate risks is consistent with inflation still running near 3%, but forecasters can and do revise their views from one survey to the next.
What it means for mortgage holders
Variable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit usually move with lenders' prime rates, which follow the policy rate. If the median path proved right, variable borrowers would see one more increase of about a quarter point by spring 2027. Fixed rates are more closely tied to bond yields, and the median 5-year yield forecast changed little between the end of 2026 and the end of 2027. A forecast is not a promise, and actual rates offered also depend on lender pricing and the borrower's profile.
Who is affected and what to do next
The survey matters most to variable-rate borrowers, HELOC users and anyone renewing in 2027. Check what a further 0.25-point rise would do to your payment, and if you are renewing, compare a fixed and a variable term side by side with the fixed vs variable calculator. For background on the latest decision, see the coverage of the October rate hike. A mortgage renewal broker can help compare offers before your renewal date.
Sources
- Bank of Canada, Market Participants Survey—Third Quarter of 2026, 2026-11-09. Accessed 2026-11-10.
- Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada raises the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2½%, 2026-10-28. Accessed 2026-11-10.
General information only, not financial advice. Survey results reflect respondents' views, not Bank of Canada forecasts. Mortgage Directory does not verify or endorse listed professionals.
